In
the aftermath of the huge trade where the Washington Redskins acquired the #2
overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft from the St. Louis Rams, plenty of
people are implying that the Redskins gave up way too much for a 4-spot jump in
the draft.
One
article I saw suggested that the Redskins essentially traded away 4 superstars for one potential franchise quarterback.
That’s
misconception #1 I’ve seen—the Redskins gave up four draft picks—and it is the
main reason nobody doubting this trade makes any sense whatsoever. The Redskins
didn’t give up 4 draft picks; they gave up 3 and swapped 1.
Now
for the price that was paid in the deal. The Redskins swapped their #6 overall
pick for the Rams’ #2 overall pick. They traded away the second-round draft
pick in this year’s draft, the first-round selection in 2013, and the first-round
selection in 2014. People have said it’s the most given up since the Herschel
Walker deal…
That’s
misconception #2 I’ve seen—the Redskins traded away more than anyone since the
Herschel Walker debacle—and it is the second reason why nobody doubting this
trade makes any sense whatsoever. When the New Orleans Saints traded for the
right to draft Ricky Williams, they gave up an entire draft, literally. Last
year, the Atlanta Falcons gave up nearly an entire draft for the rights to
select Julio Jones, a need that they didn’t have and that proved not to be of
any worth anyways.
For
reference, the New Orleans Saints got 3,000 yards out of Ricky Williams in 3
seasons with the team prior to trading him away to the Miami Dolphins. That’s
good production; however, the Saints didn’t manage to get production in the
only statistic that matters—winning.
The Atlanta Falcons traded for the right
to acquire Wide Receiver Julio Jones, expressing the belief that was their only
need, despite the facts pointing to the contrary that defense and assistance in
the run game in relief of Michael Turner would need to be the focus. In the
playoffs, the proof was in the pudding for the latter: Michael Turner was shut
down, Matt Ryan crumbled with all the pressure on his arm alone with all the
weapons in the passing game at his disposal, and the team couldn’t score any
points on offense, let alone get in position for a field goal. They finished
their playoff game against the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants
with two points [a defensive score] on a safety.
The
Washington Redskins have struggled to find a franchise quarterback [literally
forever, but especially] during the Dan Snyder era. It has been the Achilles
heel. Nobody selected to play the role has been the guy, particularly because
the Redskins haven’t been in position to grab the guy because they’ve always
been just a little better than the worst. Now they’ve got a chance to grab
their guy, and hopefully he’s everything they need in a QB and not as bad as
everything they’ve had.
Robert
Griffin III provides the opportunity to open the offense back up, to score points,
to control the game, and to not turn the football over and cost the team
opportunities to put points on the board, and also keep the defense fresh. What
he also provides is the opportunity to win those close games and win enough of
them to get into the playoffs; this is where things get interesting.
If
the Redskins are able to make the playoffs this season and next, the first
round picks the St. Louis Rams acquired turn into, at the best, 20th
overall. Picks 20-32 in the NFL Draft rarely tend to land superstar players,
rather role players who compliment the superstars.
Now,
even considering that, the Rams will likely still have earlier picks anyways,
which could land them superstars… and that brings me back to the article
I linked to posted at the Bleacher Report by Jack Gorman. Notice the swayed reporting
calling RG3 a potential franchise QB, while saying the Redskins essentially
traded away 4 superstars. Why do those guys get called superstars already while
RG3 is only labeled with potential? Don’t sway, Jack.
I
recently saw numbers suggesting that 33% of first-round picks end up being
superstars, 33% end up being average players, and 34% end up being busts, at
least with the team that drafts them. So here the Redskins are, hoping they’ll
land their superstar while trading away an average player and a bust.
Now,
did the Redskins give up too much? Whether RG3 is great or not, no. Mike
Shanahan drafted 12 players last season after starting the draft with only 6
picks. They’ve still got 7 selections this year, and 7 next year. Chances are
he’ll get even more. It’s also worth noting that Mike Shanahan’s best work in
the NFL Draft comes in rounds 3-6, where he strikes oil and finds gold with the
majority of his picks in the mid-rounds of the draft. I’ll argue, and win, that
he’s the most successful coach at drafting good-to-great talent in rounds 3-6
of all time.
Then also consider that last year’s second-round pick of DE Jarvis Jenkins resulted in season-ending injury in the preseason, so his return next year is the equivalent to the loss of this year’s second-round pick. In the end, it will take until 2014 to know what the Redskins really lost. For now, we can only guess whether it was too much or not. But regardless of what those picks end up being, all that matters is if RG3 ends up being the guy the Redskins want and need, or if he doesn’t. That’s the only measure of if he’s worth it or not.
Jack Gorman, or anyone else, feel free to leave a comment or discuss on Twitter (@dontlaughpeople, @Sean_Bishop).
Then also consider that last year’s second-round pick of DE Jarvis Jenkins resulted in season-ending injury in the preseason, so his return next year is the equivalent to the loss of this year’s second-round pick. In the end, it will take until 2014 to know what the Redskins really lost. For now, we can only guess whether it was too much or not. But regardless of what those picks end up being, all that matters is if RG3 ends up being the guy the Redskins want and need, or if he doesn’t. That’s the only measure of if he’s worth it or not.
Jack Gorman, or anyone else, feel free to leave a comment or discuss on Twitter (@dontlaughpeople, @Sean_Bishop).
20170715 junda
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